{
  "name": "forecasts",
  "description": "Forecast questions, forecasts and outcomes.",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0. Cite “Charitology (charitology.org)”.",
  "generated": "2026-10-26",
  "data": [
    {
      "id": "daf-assets-2026-above-380b",
      "path": "/forecasts/daf-assets-2026-above-380b/",
      "title": "Donor-advised fund assets above $380 billion for 2026?",
      "question": "Will the first Annual DAF Report estimate of total U.S. donor-advised fund assets for fiscal year 2026 be above $380 billion?",
      "resolution": "Resolves YES if the first Annual DAF Report covering fiscal year 2026 (expected late 2027) reports total DAF assets above $380 billion for that fiscal year, and NO otherwise. Later revisions don’t count. If no such report is published by 31 December 2027, the question is annulled.",
      "closes": "2027-09-30",
      "outcome": null,
      "conditions": [
        "parked-money"
      ],
      "forecasts": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "The Annual DAF Report 2025, Table 3",
          "url": "https://scholarworks.indianapolis.iu.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/8f309b9f-da38-433e-8c33-bc1b3d1f9a1a/content",
          "publisher": "Donor Advised Fund Research Collaborative",
          "year": 2025
        }
      ],
      "review": "draft",
      "body": "## Background\n\nThe Annual DAF Report 2025 estimated donor-advised fund assets at $326.45 billion for fiscal year 2024, up 27.5 percent from $255.99 billion in fiscal year 2023. These figures combine sponsors with different fiscal year-end dates; they are not a single calendar-year-end snapshot. Assets change with contributions, grants, investment returns and expenses.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nThis tracks one side of [Parked Money](/diagnosis/parked-money/): how much has been given away for tax purposes but has not yet reached working charities."
    },
    {
      "id": "first-open-problem-progress-by-2028",
      "path": "/forecasts/first-open-problem-progress-by-2028/",
      "title": "Progress on an Open Problem before 2028?",
      "question": "Will at least one of the Open Problems of Charitology be marked “partial” or “solved” before 1 January 2028?",
      "resolution": "Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2028, any problem in the Open Problems list has its status changed to partial or solved after public review on GitHub, and NO otherwise.",
      "closes": "2027-12-31",
      "outcome": null,
      "conditions": [
        "missing-profession"
      ],
      "forecasts": [],
      "sources": [],
      "review": "draft",
      "body": "## Background\n\nThe [Open Problems](/open-problems/) were published in October 2026, all open. A status change requires a published result that survives public review.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nA field shows it is real when its questions start getting answers. This forecast tracks whether that has begun."
    },
    {
      "id": "five-published-failures-by-2027",
      "path": "/forecasts/five-published-failures-by-2027/",
      "title": "Five organizations publish a failure on Charitology by 2028?",
      "question": "Will at least five different organizations have voluntarily published a failure or mixed result in Charitology’s Failure Archive before 1 January 2028?",
      "resolution": "Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2028, the Failure Archive contains entries for at least five different organizations that submitted or approved them in public on GitHub, and NO otherwise. Entries written about an organization without its participation don’t count.",
      "closes": "2027-12-31",
      "outcome": null,
      "conditions": [
        "silence-about-failure"
      ],
      "forecasts": [],
      "sources": [],
      "review": "draft",
      "body": "## Background\n\nThe [Silence About Failure](/diagnosis/silence-about-failure/) is a documented condition of the charity system: publishing a failure can cost funding, so most failures go unpublished. The [Failure Archive](/record/failure-archive/) invites organizations to publish their own.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nIf organizations publish voluntarily, the incentive problem may be smaller than feared. That would be early evidence on [Open Problem 9, the Failure Commons](/open-problems/the-failure-commons/)."
    },
    {
      "id": "polio-wpv1-certified-by-2030",
      "path": "/forecasts/polio-wpv1-certified-by-2030/",
      "title": "Wild poliovirus type 1 certified eradicated before 2030?",
      "question": "Will the global certification of the eradication of wild poliovirus type 1 be announced before 1 January 2030?",
      "resolution": "Resolves YES if the Global Commission for the Certification of the Eradication of Poliomyelitis, or the World Health Organization on its behalf, announces that wild poliovirus type 1 has been eradicated worldwide before 1 January 2030, and NO otherwise.",
      "closes": "2029-12-31",
      "outcome": null,
      "conditions": [
        "short-horizon"
      ],
      "forecasts": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Global Polio Eradication Initiative",
          "url": "https://polioeradication.org/",
          "publisher": "Global Polio Eradication Initiative"
        },
        {
          "title": "Poliomyelitis",
          "url": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelitis",
          "publisher": "World Health Organization",
          "year": 2025
        }
      ],
      "review": "draft",
      "body": "## Background\n\nTwo of the three wild poliovirus types have been certified eradicated. Wild poliovirus type 1 still circulates in a small number of places. Certification requires several years with no detected wild cases, so a forecast here is a forecast about the end of transmission years earlier.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nCharitology describes eradication as source-level work in health because it ends transmission. Certification of wild poliovirus type 1 would not by itself end all polio work: vaccine-derived outbreaks, surveillance and post-certification safeguards also matter. See the [Historical Case Studies](/record/case-studies/)."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-giving-2026-above-640b",
      "path": "/forecasts/us-giving-2026-above-640b/",
      "title": "U.S. giving above $640 billion in 2026?",
      "question": "Will Giving USA’s first published estimate of total U.S. charitable giving for 2026 be above $640 billion in current dollars?",
      "resolution": "Resolves YES if the headline 2026 total in Giving USA 2027 (expected mid-2027) is above $640 billion in current dollars, and NO otherwise. Later revisions don’t count.",
      "closes": "2027-05-31",
      "outcome": null,
      "conditions": [],
      "forecasts": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Giving USA: charitable giving rose to $617.20 billion in 2025",
          "url": "https://givingusa.org/giving-usa-charitable-giving-rose-to-617-20-billion-in-2025-surpassing-the-600-billion-mark-for-the-first-time/",
          "publisher": "Giving USA Foundation",
          "year": 2026
        }
      ],
      "review": "draft",
      "body": "## Background\n\nGiving USA 2026 estimated total U.S. giving at $617.2 billion for 2025, up 5.7 percent in current dollars. Growth of about 3.7 percent in 2026 would put the total at $640 billion. Market returns, inflation and large bequests all move the number from year to year.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nTotal giving is the system’s headline number. Charitology’s argument is that the total matters less than where it goes, and this question tracks the baseline."
    }
  ]
}