---
title: "The Counterfactual Problem"
number: 4
statement: "How can a giver estimate what would have happened without their gift, cheaply and at scale?"
progress: "A method that produces counterfactual estimates for ordinary gifts, with error ranges, at a cost small relative to the gift."
conditions: ["missing-feedback-loop"]
status: open
bounty: "Unfunded. The Question Bounties program will attach prizes once it is funded."
---

## Why it matters

The real effect of a gift is the difference between the world with it and the world without it. Most givers never see that difference, which is part of why the [feedback loop](/diagnosis/missing-feedback-loop/) is missing.

## Where to start

Funding-gap disclosures (how much a charity could productively absorb), matched comparisons between funded and unfunded applicants, and published “room for more funding” analyses are partial answers. The open problem is making them routine.