{
  "id": "version:problem-measuring-the-source-v1",
  "recordId": "problem:measuring-the-source",
  "version": 1,
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  "adapterVersion": "research-content-v1",
  "subject": {
    "type": "entry",
    "collection": "problems",
    "frontmatter": {
      "title": "Measuring the Source",
      "number": 3,
      "statement": "How do you measure the impact of source-level work, such as changing a story, a norm or an institution, when the effects are diffuse, shared and delayed?",
      "progress": "A measurement approach validated on at least one historical source-level change, recovering an effect that independent historians agree took place.",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "collection": "conditions",
          "id": "symptom-trap"
        },
        {
          "collection": "conditions",
          "id": "measurement-gap"
        },
        {
          "collection": "conditions",
          "id": "short-horizon"
        }
      ],
      "bounty": "Unfunded. The Question Bounties program will attach prizes once it is funded.",
      "sources": []
    },
    "body": "\n## Why it matters\n\nIf funders require measurements that source work cannot provide, useful work may be missed. That is one possible mechanism behind the [Symptom Trap](/diagnosis/symptom-trap/) hypothesis. Hard-to-measure is not the same as small.\n\n## Where to start\n\nWork backwards from changes everyone agrees happened, such as the spread of oral rehydration therapy or the end of smallpox (see [Historical Case Studies](/record/case-studies/)), and test which measures would have detected them early. Contribution analysis, process tracing and forecasting tournaments are candidate methods.\n"
  },
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  "authorship": {
    "state": "unknown",
    "complete": false,
    "actorIds": [],
    "refs": []
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  "sources": [
    {
      "sourceId": "source:current-problems-measuring-the-source",
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  "hash": "84de722c6ad0d66750e2e2bae46ab0650e5f4f8da1ef4b55fc8b0221860da058"
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