{
  "id": "source:current-problems-measuring-the-source",
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  "path": "src/content/problems/measuring-the-source.md",
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  "text": "---\ntitle: \"Measuring the Source\"\nnumber: 3\nstatement: \"How do you measure the impact of source-level work, such as changing a story, a norm or an institution, when the effects are diffuse, shared and delayed?\"\nprogress: \"A measurement approach validated on at least one historical source-level change, recovering an effect that independent historians agree took place.\"\nconditions: [\"symptom-trap\", \"measurement-gap\", \"short-horizon\"]\nstatus: open\nbounty: \"Unfunded. The Question Bounties program will attach prizes once it is funded.\"\n---\n\n## Why it matters\n\nIf funders require measurements that source work cannot provide, useful work may be missed. That is one possible mechanism behind the [Symptom Trap](/diagnosis/symptom-trap/) hypothesis. Hard-to-measure is not the same as small.\n\n## Where to start\n\nWork backwards from changes everyone agrees happened, such as the spread of oral rehydration therapy or the end of smallpox (see [Historical Case Studies](/record/case-studies/)), and test which measures would have detected them early. Contribution analysis, process tracing and forecasting tournaments are candidate methods.\n",
  "hash": "052a349c6043511ce2a46081a37cd408a50284dfca22491468ce38b0e9357984"
}