{
  "id": "source:current-problems-the-counterfactual-problem",
  "commit": "8df2d0ddbc6d91b9841c6bbb94dbde1fc7c00137",
  "path": "src/content/problems/the-counterfactual-problem.md",
  "sha256": "e0c962520906ceb2921e9874f34675620b64d71c96571e6ce44678e83f1d97da",
  "byteLength": 943,
  "text": "---\ntitle: \"The Counterfactual Problem\"\nnumber: 4\nstatement: \"How can a giver estimate what would have happened without their gift, cheaply and at scale?\"\nprogress: \"A method that produces counterfactual estimates for ordinary gifts, with error ranges, at a cost small relative to the gift.\"\nconditions: [\"missing-feedback-loop\"]\nstatus: open\nbounty: \"Unfunded. The Question Bounties program will attach prizes once it is funded.\"\n---\n\n## Why it matters\n\nThe real effect of a gift is the difference between the world with it and the world without it. Most givers never see that difference, which is part of why the [feedback loop](/diagnosis/missing-feedback-loop/) is missing.\n\n## Where to start\n\nFunding-gap disclosures (how much a charity could productively absorb), matched comparisons between funded and unfunded applicants, and published “room for more funding” analyses are partial answers. The open problem is making them routine.\n",
  "hash": "f4b4375dd42cb78b9afad7822cfa9baf94c4379e14d73814e3b17b27fe86909f"
}