{
  "id": "version:problem-the-counterfactual-problem-v1",
  "recordId": "problem:the-counterfactual-problem",
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  "subject": {
    "type": "entry",
    "collection": "problems",
    "frontmatter": {
      "title": "The Counterfactual Problem",
      "number": 4,
      "statement": "How can a giver estimate what would have happened without their gift, cheaply and at scale?",
      "progress": "A method that produces counterfactual estimates for ordinary gifts, with error ranges, at a cost small relative to the gift.",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "collection": "conditions",
          "id": "missing-feedback-loop"
        }
      ],
      "bounty": "Unfunded. The Question Bounties program will attach prizes once it is funded.",
      "sources": []
    },
    "body": "\n## Why it matters\n\nThe real effect of a gift is the difference between the world with it and the world without it. Most givers never see that difference, which is part of why the [feedback loop](/diagnosis/missing-feedback-loop/) is missing.\n\n## Where to start\n\nFunding-gap disclosures (how much a charity could productively absorb), matched comparisons between funded and unfunded applicants, and published “room for more funding” analyses are partial answers. The open problem is making them routine.\n"
  },
  "subjectHash": "4d5aaafd6bde299f0b51c8f64625b67706ba01e47e96d9a8a503587243b054a6",
  "authorship": {
    "state": "unknown",
    "complete": false,
    "actorIds": [],
    "refs": []
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "sourceId": "source:current-problems-the-counterfactual-problem",
      "selector": {
        "kind": "entry"
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  "hash": "ddf0093aebfea5ad127e016c4e888ce134eecc51ad5ace9a998798686a2a49db"
}