Forecast question

Five organizations publish a failure on Charitology by 2028?

Will at least five different organizations have voluntarily published a failure or mixed result in Charitology’s Failure Archive before 1 January 2028?

OpenCloses December 31, 2027
How it resolves

Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2028, the Failure Archive contains entries for at least five different organizations that submitted or approved them in public on GitHub, and NO otherwise. Entries written about an organization without its participation don’t count.

Background

The Silence About Failure is a documented condition of the charity system: publishing a failure can cost funding, so most failures go unpublished. The Failure Archive invites organizations to publish their own.

Why it matters

If organizations publish voluntarily, the incentive problem may be smaller than feared. That would be early evidence on Open Problem 9, the Failure Commons.

Forecasts

No forecasts yet. Be the first.

Add your forecast

Forecasts are pull requests. Your handle and number are public.
Certainly notCertainly
Add this to the question’s forecasts: list

If the list is empty (forecasts: []), replace [] with a new line and paste the entry beneath it. Only your latest forecast on a question is scored.