Resolves YES if the Global Commission for the Certification of the Eradication of Poliomyelitis, or the World Health Organization on its behalf, announces that wild poliovirus type 1 has been eradicated worldwide before 1 January 2030, and NO otherwise.
Background
Two of the three wild poliovirus types have been certified eradicated. Wild poliovirus type 1 still circulates in a small number of places. Certification requires several years with no detected wild cases, so a forecast here is a forecast about the end of transmission years earlier.
Why it matters
Charitology describes eradication as source-level work in health because it ends transmission. Certification of wild poliovirus type 1 would not by itself end all polio work: vaccine-derived outbreaks, surveillance and post-certification safeguards also matter. See the Historical Case Studies.
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