Forecast question

U.S. giving above $640 billion in 2026?

Will Giving USA’s first published estimate of total U.S. charitable giving for 2026 be above $640 billion in current dollars?

OpenCloses May 31, 2027
How it resolves

Resolves YES if the headline 2026 total in Giving USA 2027 (expected mid-2027) is above $640 billion in current dollars, and NO otherwise. Later revisions don’t count.

Background

Giving USA 2026 estimated total U.S. giving at $617.2 billion for 2025, up 5.7 percent in current dollars. Growth of about 3.7 percent in 2026 would put the total at $640 billion. Market returns, inflation and large bequests all move the number from year to year.

Why it matters

Total giving is the system’s headline number. Charitology’s argument is that the total matters less than where it goes, and this question tracks the baseline.

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Sources

  1. Giving USA: charitable giving rose to $617.20 billion in 2025 · Giving USA Foundation, 2026