Version 1: Measuring the Source
- Subject checksum
5998a2220b5dc20e4cab2a388a454b3fa554b674fe09a9affbf6afc495a22951- Version checksum
84de722c6ad0d66750e2e2bae46ab0650e5f4f8da1ef4b55fc8b0221860da058- Authorship declaration
- unknown; completeness unknown.
- bounty
- Unfunded. The Question Bounties program will attach prizes once it is funded.
- conditions
[ { "collection": "conditions", "id": "symptom-trap" }, { "collection": "conditions", "id": "measurement-gap" }, { "collection": "conditions", "id": "short-horizon" } ]- number
- 3
- progress
- A measurement approach validated on at least one historical source-level change, recovering an effect that independent historians agree took place.
- statement
- How do you measure the impact of source-level work, such as changing a story, a norm or an institution, when the effects are diffuse, shared and delayed?
Exact archived Markdown body
Inert source text, including its original formatting. It is not executed as page markup.
## Why it matters If funders require measurements that source work cannot provide, useful work may be missed. That is one possible mechanism behind the [Symptom Trap](/diagnosis/symptom-trap/) hypothesis. Hard-to-measure is not the same as small. ## Where to start Work backwards from changes everyone agrees happened, such as the spread of oral rehydration therapy or the end of smallpox (see [Historical Case Studies](/record/case-studies/)), and test which measures would have detected them early. Contribution analysis, process tracing and forecasting tournaments are candidate methods.
Pinned source capture
- src/content/problems/measuring-the-source.md · whole entry
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"body": "\n## Why it matters\n\nIf funders require measurements that source work cannot provide, useful work may be missed. That is one possible mechanism behind the [Symptom Trap](/diagnosis/symptom-trap/) hypothesis. Hard-to-measure is not the same as small.\n\n## Where to start\n\nWork backwards from changes everyone agrees happened, such as the spread of oral rehydration therapy or the end of smallpox (see [Historical Case Studies](/record/case-studies/)), and test which measures would have detected them early. Contribution analysis, process tracing and forecasting tournaments are candidate methods.\n",
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