Research history

Current published edition

The Counterfactual Problem

As recorded by 2026-10-27T08:31:31.000Z. This is a dated public record of drafts, changes, sources and review declarations. A page, checksum or merged pull request does not establish a scientific result or independent review.

Edition: edition:2026-10-27-initial
Edition checksum: 63af9ab52aa86652f81ea1fac0b7c40aaad46cd8623865918d41ec347f9b2cd3
Projection checksum: 08a373e3b85d7ed44d36bc472444b5773f7cbd1dde11f60e0053b3ba4884b65c
Period: 2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z inclusive to 2026-10-27T08:31:31.000Z exclusive.
Starting baseline: Unknown before the recorded capture. Present states are not backdated to January.

JSON retains the complete pinned edition. CSV covers every recorded event in this edition; view filters do not change either download.

Recorded activity and qualification

43Stable records
45Subject versions
43Recorded events
0Review declarations
0Subjects with qualifying source review
0Peer-reviewed manuscripts
0Qualifying research results
1Editorial correction artifacts
2Changed claim subjects
23Open problems
0Partially resolved problems
0Solved problems
0Problems under review
0Unresolved challenges

Qualification follows the exact recorded public declarations. The ledger cannot establish identity, independence, source reading or truth by itself. Editorial corrections, proposed methods and software checks are separate from qualifying research results.

Coverage and limits

40 source entries are covered by this edition. Claim-level records cover only their selected wording and context; they do not qualify a whole manuscript. Source-derived case labels describe the published summaries, not Charitology fieldwork or charity ratings.

This initial capture establishes current draft coverage, not a known January baseline or an earlier status history.
The one PR-backed artifact is an editorial correction to two claim subjects; it is not a scientific result, independent review or problem resolution.
Source-derived case descriptions and manuscript bylines do not establish performed Charitology fieldwork or documented complete human authorship.
Public GitHub observations describe only the named objects at their recorded inspection time. An empty returned review list is not proof about reviews elsewhere.

Entry links open the present site. The separate pinned source text retains this edition’s exact archived bytes.

The Counterfactual Problem · Research problem · version 1

Source review: draftProblem: open

problem:the-counterfactual-problem

No current qualifying whole-entry source/framing review is recorded.

Effective problem state: open
Last recorded state: open
Current support: baseline
Last recorded disposition: No scientific disposition is recorded.

Qualification follows the exact recorded public declarations. The ledger cannot establish identity, independence, source reading or truth by itself.

Versions and exact subjects

Version entries 1–1

Version 1: The Counterfactual Problem

Current subject in this edition

Subject checksum: 4d5aaafd6bde299f0b51c8f64625b67706ba01e47e96d9a8a503587243b054a6
Version checksum: ddf0093aebfea5ad127e016c4e888ce134eecc51ad5ace9a998798686a2a49db
Authorship declaration: unknown; completeness unknown.

bounty

Unfunded. The Question Bounties program will attach prizes once it is funded.

conditions

[
  {
    "collection": "conditions",
    "id": "missing-feedback-loop"
  }
]

number

progress

A method that produces counterfactual estimates for ordinary gifts, with error ranges, at a cost small relative to the gift.

statement

How can a giver estimate what would have happened without their gift, cheaply and at scale?

Exact archived Markdown body

Inert source text, including its original formatting. It is not executed as page markup.

## Why it matters

The real effect of a gift is the difference between the world with it and the world without it. Most givers never see that difference, which is part of why the [feedback loop](/diagnosis/missing-feedback-loop/) is missing.

## Where to start

Funding-gap disclosures (how much a charity could productively absorb), matched comparisons between funded and unfunded applicants, and published “room for more funding” analyses are partial answers. The open problem is making them routine.

Pinned source capture

src/content/problems/the-counterfactual-problem.md · whole entry
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Exact version fields and declaration references

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      "title": "The Counterfactual Problem"
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Timeline in recorded order

Public occurrence time and ledger recording time are different. A coverage baseline records what was present at capture; it does not invent an earlier history.

Events 1–1

Coverage baseline

Recorded order: 24; sequence 1 for this record.
Public occurrence: Undated / no earlier occurrence asserted · undated
Recorded in ledger: 2026-10-27T08:31:31.000Z

Initial capture of current source wording; no earlier independent review or historical event time is asserted.

Observed baseline: version 1; problem open.

Exact event fields

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Review declarations

No public review declaration is recorded for this subject in this edition.

Dated public metadata observations

These observations record only the displayed metadata at inspection. A merge, closed issue or empty review list does not establish research or independent review.

github-pull-request · 2026-10-27T08:20:16.587Z

Observed public object

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github-pull-request · 2026-10-27T08:20:16.587Z

Observed public object

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github-review-list · 2026-10-27T08:20:16.587Z

Observed public object

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github-issue · 2026-10-27T08:20:16.587Z

Observed public object

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